November Market Trends
Will Election Results Change Local Markets?
As usual for this time of year, fewer home sales occurred in most communities during November. Thus, reviewing what impact the recent elections may have on local real estate markets next year is more relevant. Regarding the national economy, here are a few interesting comments I have read recently:
For a stronger economy:
- When Congress and the White House are controlled by the same political party, the stock market gains historically averaged 13.7% per year
- More infrastructure and defense spending will boost the economy
- Trump is pro real estate, and will request and promote friendly legislation
For a weaker economy:
- 100% of the time going back to 1908 (with one minor exception), a recession follows the year after a 2-term president leaves office
- Tax cuts combined with increased infrastructure spending will increase national debt, raise interest rates, and slow economic growth
- Attempts to renegotiate trade agreements will cause trade wars which lead to recession
No one knows with certainty which way the economy will move in 2017. What is known is that the economy, stock market, and local real estate markets are nearing record-long periods of gain. The contrarian in me expects a weaker economy and local real estate market sometime next year.
Wishing everyone a wonderful, joyous, peaceful holiday season!
In the charts below, you’ll find 15 years of data for market activity and median sales price for the month of November for Los Altos, Palo Alto, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park and Mountain View. You can’t find this level of historical data all in one place anywhere else, so if you have any questions or wish to get more info about your community, don’t hesitate to contact me.